The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing shortlists on Tuesday, Dec. 21 for 10 Oscar races. The categories and number of films to be revealed are documentary feature (15), documentary short subject (10), international feature (15), makeup and hairstyling (10), original score (15), original song (15), animated short film (10), live action short film (10), visual effects (10) and for the first time in history, sound (10).
Acting as a progress report for studios, the shortlists provide insight on what is resonating with particular branches, especially among the best picture frontrunners. Awards strategists behind Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast,” Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” and Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” are hoping for more than one mention across the eligible shortlists.
Other features like Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard” and Siân Heder’s “CODA” stand to see a boost in their profiles.
Shortlist voting concluded on Dec. 15, and the remaining films will move on to the official phase one voting, which will take place from Jan. 27 to Feb. 1. Oscar nominations in all 23 categories will be announced on Feb. 8, with the ceremony set to take place on March 27.
Below, find the shortlist predictions (except for the shorts) with commentary on what to expect. Go to each category’s Awards Circuit prediction pages for the contenders’ full rankings and the credited artisans.
Makeup and Hairstyling
- “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios)
- “Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “House of Gucci” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
- “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios)
- “The Suicide Squad” (Warner Bros.)
- “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Alternates: “Army of the Dead” (Netflix), “Free Guy” (20th Century Studios), “Respect” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
The more makeup, the more likely a film is to gain traction with this particular branch. However, this category’s bakeoff almost always yields significant surprises like the inclusion of “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared” (2013) or an exclusion like “The Shape of Water” (2017). The work performed on Stellan Skarsgård in “Dune” and Jared Leto in “House of Gucci” feel like safe bets, as does the pronounced nature of “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” In the vein of the Will Smith sci-fi feature “Bright” (2017), could Netflix push through something like “Army of the Dead”?
Sound
- “Belfast” (Focus Features)
- “Cyrano” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
- “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
- “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios)
- “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
- “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
- “A Quiet Place Part II” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
- “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Alternates: “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix), “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures), “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel)
Look for the domination of musicals such as MGM/UAR’s “Cyrano,” Netflix’s “Tick, Tick … Boom!” and 20th Century Studios’ “West Side Story,” which can all make the cut. Warner Bros.’ “Dune” seems like a surefire bet and is the frontrunner for the category. A showing here for Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” will make an impact with the artisan branches, while big blockbusters like Cary Joji Fukunaga’s “No Time to Die” could pop up. With its predecessor a former nominee in this space, I’m expecting a spot for John Krasinski’s “A Quiet Place Part II,” which is currently the awards pony for Paramount Pictures.
Visual Effects
- “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
- “Eternals” (Marvel Studios)
- “Free Guy” (20th Century Studios)
- “Godzilla vs. Kong” (Warner Bros.)
- “The Matrix: Resurrections” (Warner Bros.)
- “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
- “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Marvel)
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony Pictures)
- “The Suicide Squad” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “Finch” (Apple Original Films), “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” (Sony Pictures), “The Tomorrow War” (Amazon Studios)
This is where jaws usually drop. It’s easy to point to the Marvel and DC films, but we have sequels galore with “The Matrix Resurrections” and “Godzilla vs. Kong.” And while not overtly obvious, “No Time to Die” and “Nightmare Alley” both made the Critics Choice lineups, which could be a hint of their inclusion.
Original Score
- “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios) – Daniel Pemberton
- “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix) – Nicholas Britell
- “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Hans Zimmer
- “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Germaine Franco
- “The French Dispatch” (Searchlight Pictures) – Alexandre Desplat
- “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix) – Jeymes Samuel
- “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios) – Harry Gregson-Williams
- “The Lost Daughter” (Netflix) – Dickon Hinchliffe
- “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Hans Zimmer
- “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures) – Nathan Johnson
- “Operation Mincemeat” (Netflix) – Thomas Newman
- “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Alberto Iglesias
- “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures) – James Newton Howard
- “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Jonny Greenwood
- “Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios) – Jonny Greenwood
Alternates: “Cyrano” (MGM/United Artists Releasing), “Jockey” (Sony Pictures Classics), “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
Will we see double dips for Jonny Greenwood, who has “The Power of the Dog” and “Spencer,” and Hans Zimmer, with “Dune” and “No Time to Die?” There’s also a shot for two Nicholas Britell works, who seems assured for “Don’t Look Up,” but could also pop in with “Cruella.” Then there are branch favorites like Alexandre Desplat, James Newton Howard and Thomas Newman. Will they embrace newcomers like Germaine Franco, Dickon Hinchliffe and Nathan Johnson?
Original Song
- “Annette” (Amazon Studios) – “So May We Start” by Sparks
- “Belfast” (Focus Features) – “Down to Joy” by Van Morrison
- “Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road” (Screen Media) – “Right Where I Belong” by Brian Wilson, Jim James
- “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – “Beyond the Shore” by Nicholai Baxter, Matt Dahan, Sian Heder, Marius de Vries
- “Cyrano” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – “Every Letter” by Matt Berninger, Carin Besser, Aaron Dessner, Bryce Dessner
- “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix) – “Just Look Up” by Nicholas Britell, Ariana Grande, Scott Mescudi, Tara Stinson
- “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – “Dos Oruguitas” by Lin-Manuel Miranda
- “Four Good Days” (Vertical Entertainment) – “Somehow You Do” by Diane Warren
- “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix) – “Guns Go Bang” by Jeymes Samuel, Scott Mescudi, Shawn Carter
- “King Richard” (Warner Bros.) – “Be Alive” by Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Dixson
- “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – “No Time to Die” by Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
- “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures) – “Lead the Way” by Jhene Aiko
- “Rebel Hearts” (Discovery Plus) – “Secret Sister” by Rufus Wainwright
- “Respect” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” by Jamie Alexander Hartman, Jennifer Hudson, Carole King
- “Sing 2” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) – “Your Song Save My Life” by Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen, Jr.
Alternates: “Bruised” (Netflix, “Automatic Woman”), “Dear Evan Hansen” (Universal Pictures, “The Anonymous Ones”), “The First Wave” (National Geographic, Jon Batiste)
The biggest names in music are all in the running, including Beyonce, Jay-Z, Ariana Grande, Bono and Billie Eilish. That’s a very famous lineup for a group that likes to keep things in its inner circle. Watch out for some big snubs in this space in favor of safer entries from Brian Wilson, Diane Warren and even last year’s winners in song and score, H.E.R. and Jon Batiste.
Documentary Feature
- “Ascension” (MTV Documentary Films)
- “Attica” (Showtime)
- “Faya Dayi” (Janus Films)
- “The First Wave” (Neon)
- “Flee” (Neon)
- “Francesco” (Discovery Plus)
- “Introducing, Selma Blair” (Discovery Plus)
- “Julia” Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Pray Away” (Netflix)
- “Procession” (Netflix)
- “The Rescue” (National Geographic)
- “The Sparks Brothers” (Focus Features)
- “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Val” (Amazon Studios)
- “The Velvet Underground” (Apple Original Films)
Alternates: “The Crime of the Century” (HBO Documentary Films), “My Name is Pauli Murray” (Amazon Studios), “Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America” (Sony Pictures Classics)
The hard truth that many are not saying aloud, is that after last year’s incredible field of documentary features, this one doesn’t ignite the same passion or excitement. We could have a standard lineup or one that is all over the place with no consensus. Hollywood stories could resonate, which gives an edge to films like “Introducing, Selma Blair” and “Val,” while music nostalgia hopes to strike a cord in films like “The Sparks Brothers” and “The Velvet Underground.”
International Feature
- “Compartment No. 6” (Finland)
- “Drive My Car” (Japan)
- “Flee” (Denmark)
- “The Good Boss” (Spain)
- “The Hand of God” (Italy)
- “Hive” (Kosovo)
- “A Hero” (Iran)
- “I’m Your Man” (Germany)
- “Lamb” (Iceland)
- “Memoria” (Colombia)
- “Prayers for the Stolen” (Mexico)
- “Titane” (France)
- “Unclenching the Firsts” (Russia)
- “The Worst Person in the World” (Norway)
- “Zátopek” (Czech Republic)
Alternates: “Great Freedom” (Austria), “Let It Be Morning” (Israel), “Tigers” (Sweden)
There’s about eight films that seem strong and ready for the shortlist from Finland, Japan, Denmark, Italy, Iran, Mexico, France and Norway. The rest is contingent on the number of films the members who opted-in watched before voting, which is what this race has boiled down to the last few years. If a film is also in consideration for best picture, then it gives a voter two chances to discover it on the Academy Streaming Room. If not, it’s fighting for recognition through a sorted list.
